Random thoughts of the election, during the 2016 election.
23:50 – Donald Trump has won the 2016 election making him the next President of the United States.
22:50 – Pennsylvania goes red for the 2016 election for the first time since the 1992 Presidential race putting Trump just below the 270 mark.
22:10 – As results grind to a snails pace, few thoughts: With the impending Trump Presidency on the horizon, we should consider how many groups of people Trump alienated. Furthermore, those groups are probably starting to become fearful. Indeed, Trump casted out groups of immigrants, including: Syrians, Middle Easterns, and Hispanics.
Moreover, groups within America’s own societal fabric have been targets of Trump’s divisive language. This includes women and blacks. The fear among those two groups is likely not only high, but real. Consequently, a Trump Presidency has the potential of eroding decades of advancement in racial and gender progress.
21:48 – The Democrats’ hopeful Senate race is nearly dashed, as pending calls for Senate seats sit in battleground States. If the past hours have been any indication of future results, it won’t play in the Democrat’s favor.
21:41 – Nevada goes to Clinton, along with Maine. But, her path is still extremely narrow, and Trump is offering a pull away bid in Michigan. Additionally, Clinton needs to edge Trump in PA; without it, this 2016 election might be head first into a tie.
21:29 – The markets are floored right now with the DOW future down 4%, and the S&P down 5%. In currencies, the U.S. dollar is down 4%, and the Mexican peso is down 11%. Meanwhile, Gold jumped nearly 5%, while oil fell nearly the same amount.
21:12 – Trump is taking all the major battleground States: Utah, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton needed to nix one of those States. In addition, Iowa leans toward Trump after reporting finally turns solid.
21:09 – Quoting my brother Domenico Montanaro over at NPR, Clinton’s path is slimmer than a tight rope: “If Clinton were to lose Wisconsin, this is the only path for Clinton, and it includes winning Michigan, where she’s behind, New Hampshire, where she’s behind and the two electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine. And that would just be 270-268. If she lost one of those electoral votes in Nebraska or Maine, then it would be a tie…”
21:00 – As the map bleeds red, I’ve been receiving messages all night about the 2016 election. One question in particular stuck out: How could there possibly be such a nationwide acceptance of hate.
That’s a good question that can’t be answered in a single post. But, put in the most abbreviated, yet succinct manner possible: this great country has one fault–a history of racism. When you pair that racism with fear, you have quite the cocktail. Today, we are seeing how fear tugs on even the darkest of a nation’s past, where a campaign predicated on hate toward non-white, non-Americans can wash over the world’s freest, most capable country.
20:35 – Washington State turns to Clintons favor, as well as Nevada. That is good results for Clinton supporters. No celebrating just yet, though; Clinton needs a win in Michigan, or Wisconsin–possibly both.
20:30 – After taking another look at the Utah map, the vote was split between Clinton and McMullin, handing Trump a hearty lead. McMullin is a Utah native who ran as a third-party Candidate in the State.
20:22 – Clinton’s path is narrowing with Trump potentially nixing Washington State. If that holds up, Clinton will need Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada to win.
20:11 – In the opening minutes of reporting, CA and HI gets called for Clinton. Less than surprising. But, with Nevada, Arizona, and Utah leaning in Trump’s favor, the fruit isn’t looking so ripe. And, if Florida is any indication of whether Clinton’s team can pump out the Latino vote, Nevada and Arizona will be out of reach for Clinton.
20:00 – Taking a step back to propositions, recall that the legalization for the recreational use of marijuana was on the table today in 5 States: CA, AZ, ME, MA, NV. In Arizona, the yes vote is trailing, but has not been called yet. In Massachusetts, though not called as well, the yes vote is leading; Maine is currently following the lead of their sister State, Massachusetts. CA and NV have not reported yet.
19:53 – Clinton swoops up CO and VA, but Trump balked at the move taking NC, and FL. Trump most certainly has a path to victory right now.
19:50 – Economists and experts continue to opine that a Trump Presidency will effectively, and swiftly, destroy markets. In an article over at TheStreet, Emily Stewart that a Trump Presidency will push global equity markets down by at least 10%.
19:44 – Utah is–surprisingly–overwhelmingly leaning toward Trump. In a State where the polling showed it as a lockup, Trump is pulling away fast with double digits. At the same time, Utah hasn’t voted for a Democratic President since LBJ.
19:35 – To even out Trump nixing a blue State, Clinton needs PA, in addition to her snag of VA. Clinton is in a good position to do that. Additionally, Clinton overtook the Iowa odds, though, Iowans were never fond of Trump.
19:31 – The markets are not happy with Trump leading the Electoral College causing futures to plunge. I’m having flashbacks to being in Ireland during summer during the Brexit vote, where $800m flooded out of the market in one day.
19:24 – Clinton needs to pull out a victory in Virgina, if she wants to effectively slow down Trump. Furthermore, Clinton needs to pull a victory in Nevada. Absent these two States, Trump certainly has a path to victory. Indeed, Trump needs to take the States he’s leading in right now–FL, MI, NC–and Trump will certainly hit 270.
19:13 – As the map stands, and if Clinton and Trump take their respective traditionally leaning States, this will all boil down to battleground States.
19:07 – The map might be unsettling currently, but don’t let it mislead you. Currently, there is no deviation in regards to which States lean Republican, and which States lean Democrat. Put another way, Clinton and Trump have both taken what has been expected. Indeed, there has not been a flip of any of the States yet, with arguably the only exception being Michigan. Thus, hold onto your hats, folks, this is going to be a fun ride.
18:45 – Dems take their first Senate seat with Tammy Duckworth edging out incumbent Republican Senator Kirk. Widely predicted, Duckworth led by low double digits leading into the 2016 election. Nevertheless, the Dems will take the win, and need to take 4-5 more Senate seats.
16:55 – As the first polls close, it is important to rememeber that many of the first States to close are Republican. Thus, Trump should pull out ahead early on, but as the night wanes, a bit of evening out should occur.
15:39 – The first polls closed at 6pm ET in eastern Kentucky, and most of Indiana. The next set of polls close at 7pm ET in a handful of States: part of Georgia and Florida; the remainder of Indiana and Kentucky; and New Hampshire, Vermont, S. Carolina, and Virginia. Find which polls close when in the 2016 election, here.
15:24 – As a random note, NPR just reported that former President G. W. Bush cast his vote … and it was for neither Clinton, nor Trump. What is the take away? The GOP is fractured, and it will take someone much stronger than Priebus to chair the GOP.
15:05 – What happens in the highly unlikely circumstance that a tie in the Presidential race between Clinton and Trump occurs? Cue Congress, says the Constitution. Click here, for an in-depth look at what the Electoral College is, and its role. Checkout this WSJ article on the process in the unlikely result of a tie.
13:56 – This Presidential race is tight in places it shouldn’t be, and that is bad for Republicans. In Utah, Clinton and Trump are locked up; yet, the last time Utah voted for a Democrat President was in the 60’s when Utahns voted for LBJ. Thus, what should be an easy W for Trump, seems all but certain.
Meanwhile, many States are seeing similar shifting. Arizona has consistently voted for a Republican President since the 50’s. Again, though, the race in Arizona is within a 3-point spread. Texas is seeing a similar shift, as previously deeply red States are turning purple for the 2016 election.
13:50 – The Senate races are all the talk. Indeed, if the results of the 2016 election yields a Democrat held Senate, expect the current Senate to do some posturing in the lame duck session.
12:58 – Another interesting category on ballots this year is the treatment of animals. There is only four propositions on ballots throughout the States, two of which come from Massachusetts. The other two animal treatment propositions will be found in Montana, and Oregon.
In Massachusetts, the main proposition dealing with the treatment of animals is in regards to the size of containment for farm animals. Here, the proposition intends to prohibit the sale of eggs, veal, or pork of a farm animal confined in spaces that prevent the animal from lying down, standing up, extending its limbs, or turning around.
In Oregon, voters will only consider one proposition dealing with the treatment of animals: Oregon Wildlife Trafficking Prevention. Slightly misleading, this proposition only deals partly with wildlife organic to Oregon; instead, the proposition seeks to prohibit the sale of products and parts of rhino, cheetah, tiger, sea turtle, lion, elephant, whale, shark, pangolin, jaguar, ray, and leopard in Oregon.
12:20 – Follow up on Trump’s suit in NV: Here is the suit filed in NV by the Trump campaign. Recall that the Trump campaign is contending that certain polls in NV allowed voters to cast their ballots after the polls closed; however, NV law–similar to many sister State statutes–extends the hours of (a) poll(s) to accommodate voters who are in line at the regularly scheduled close of the poll(s). Nevertheless, Trump contends that other voters “showed up” and voted, even after poll workers announced the polls had closed.
Noon – For those still looking to cast their vote in the 2016 election, checkout the NPR page offering where to vote, and when your poll closes.
11:50 – Arizona voters are seeing two propositions on the ballot in the 2016 election: (1) proposition 205 legalizing the recreational use of marijuana, and; (2) proposition 206 simultaneously increases the minimum wage, and mandates paid sick leave for employees of private and public entities. In the latter, the current AZ minimum wage is $8.05/hr. The proposition would kick that to $10/hr in 2017, then incrementally to $12/hr by 2020.
11:35 – Many States have propositions on the ballots this 2016 election. The most popular among them: legalization of recreational marijuana. Indeed, 5 States have a proposition to legalize the recreational use of marijuana, including: California, Arizona, Nevada, Maine, and Massachusetts. Currently, only 3 States allow the recreational use of marijuana.
11:28 – Largely overlook, the Senate race is hotly contested, with the potential to flip from a Republican majority, to a Democrat majority. 15 seats in the senate are up, and Dems only need to make a grab for 6 seats to split the power in the Senate.
11:20 – Widely circulated now, the Trump campaign has filed a lawsuit in NV arguing that some voters during the early voting session were able to cast a vote after the polls were supposed to close. Slightly unclear on what exactly the Trump team is trying to accomplish here–outside of avoiding losing NV–but NV law provides that anyone in line at the time a poll closes will be allowed to vote. This is a common statute among the several states.
8:40 – As expected, gender bias is already bubbling to the surface. In a recent article, I expressed that a Clinton Presidency will likely aggravate those who struggle with gender roles. Similarly, this effect happened during the Obama Presidency among racial lines.
8:30 – For the curious, should Clinton win the 2016 election, Bill Clinton’s official title will be the First Gentleman of the United States.
8:25 – This morning Trump was asked about how he was feeling in re today’s election battle, to which Trump responded that it is looking really good. Not sure what Trump is looking at. Trump’s path to victory is extremely narrow, if existent at all. At the same time, don’t expect Clinton to run the table; though, it isn’t completely impossible.