Millennics EP2 – Exploring the Presidential Primaries

In the second episode of Millennics – a podcast discussing Policy, Politics, and Law from the viewpoint of Millennials – we’ll be exploring the presidential primaries, and touch on the fractured GOP.

Millennics host, Jonathan J. Cianfaglione, will discuss how the numbers on both ends of the GOP spectrum have been stagnant, while the numbers in the upper-middle section have seen lots of movement.  Honing in on this, Jonathan J. Cianfaglione explains the jockeying in this section of the GOP candidacy race is indicative that one of the candidates in this section will go on to be the GOP front runner, and Trump is poised to be deliver a huge upset.

RNC info, date, and location.
2016 President of the United States (POTUS) Cheat Sheet, from the Atlantic.
2016 Primary Schedule. 

Millennics is presented by this site,
Host: Jonathan J. Cianfaglione (twitter: @jjcianfaglione)
Support from: VIG & Associates

Show Notes:

Millennics EP2 – Exploring the Presidential Primaries

Welcome to another episode of Millennics – a Podcast discussing policy, politics, and law from the viewpoint of Millennials.  I’m your host, Jonathan J. Cianfaglione.  Today, we’ll be exploring the presidential primaries.

Millennics will close with Primers – which is our way to tee up the next episode.

But, before I jump into anything, I have to say that, “Making a Murderer” on Netflix consumed my entire last week.  Every night, religiously, I sat down to watch an episode, or two. What a great documentary, and I definitely encourage everyone to watch it.  I’m going to abstain from saying anything else about it except that it is the true tale of a guy our in Wisconsin who ends up being released from prison after he served 18 years for a crime he never committed.  Soon after his release, however, this guy gets accused of another crime, creating another death spiral of a tale.  Watch the show on Netflix, and leave me your thoughts on twitter @jjcianfaglione

Moving on to the Primaries

Primary season is officially here.  If you’re wondering why Iowa and NH are getting so much press concerning the primaries, it’s because they are the first states to kick us off, with Iowa on Feb. 1, and NH on Feb 9.  Only a total of 6 states have a February primary.  The month of Feb, and, consequently, the states with primaries in that month, is to be the tell all story of what is going to unfold for the rest of the states.  Thus, in a hypo, the idea is if Trump was to win 3 out of those February primaries, we should be able to predict that he will go on to be the candidate.

However, the GOP party as a whole would still have a play in their pocket for the RNC, should they get a primary candidate they disagree with.  The RNC is on July 18th, in Cleveland, OH.

As for the primaries, things won’t be solidified until the end.

Yes, yes, the polls, consistently, have shown pretty much some stagnant numbers for GOP candidates on both the top, and the bottom.  While the upper-middle group has shown some jockeying.

Here, the bottom is the most vulnerable to an abrupt conclusion of their campaign.  Indeed, we have seen this exact sequence for a number of GOP candidates not performing well at the polls, including Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Scott Walker, and Bobby Jindal.  The candidates left at the bottom, who would be must likely to see this same abrupt conclusion is: Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, and Mike Huckabee.

Oppositely, the jockeying in the upper-middle section for the GOP between Cruz, Rubio, Bush, and Christie show promise.  That is, I feel it is safe to say that voters are weighing these candidates as the real candidates, and, the jockeying is indicative of voters weighing the odds.

The top spot for the GOP has been held almost completely by Trump, with Carson only knocking him to second for a brief period.  Since then, Carson has seen his numbers tumble, and we’ll probably see a long and silent end to his campaign.

It’s been a completely different story for the Democrats.

A story that has mainly focused on Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.  But, Clinton still has a strong lead in front of Sanders.  That leaves only one other candidate: Martin O’Malley.

O’Malley has not been able to muster a support group, despite having sound moderate policies that would generally attract both republicans and democrats.  Instead, though, O’Malley has been treading at the single digits throughout this entire campaign.

In all honestly, I saw O’Malley as a would-be favorite for every age-group, and, as mentioned, either party.  But his campaigns ability to attract voters has dumbfounded me.  Further, O’Malley’s race bid may already be over.  At the beginning of the year, O’Malley missed the signature cut off to be placed in the Ohio primary.  If that wasn’t bad enough, the O’Malley campaign committed another fumble by missing the write-in candidate deadline for Ohio, which could have saved him.  With that no longer as an option, his candidacy is at serious risk of imploding, if it hasn’t already.

As a side note, Sanders’ numbers are about equivalent to Trump’s numbers.  If the Republicans had a more consolidated candidate field, it could easily be argued that Trump’s numbers wouldn’t be so demanding as they are.  But, when the field is so saturated, its splits the votes quiet a bit, damaging the chances of two or three solid candidates, like we see for the Dems.

In sum, I will reiterate something I have said for months: forget what the polls have been saying; now is the time things will start to show their true colors.  Most voters aren’t interested in these things until the last 30 days of their primary.  Even still, there is a large population of voters who don’t find an interest until the two main contenders are front, and center.  So, be mindful of that, as I am definitely of the mind that Trump isn’t going to win each state’s primary.  Rather, I think Trump is going to be delivers a huge upset, where we’ll see the actual GOP class come out, cast their vote, and really create some massive tremors, such that we’ll probably see those candidates in the upper-middle category, like—Bush, Christie, Cruz, Rubio—be the candidates of choice.